petrol prices in South Africa for November 2024; Forecast and Analysis
petrol prices in South Africa; motorists should prepare for a slight increase in fuel prices this November 2024, though the anticipated hikes are relatively modest compared to the substantial decreases seen over the previous five months. According to the Central Energy Fund’s (CEF) latest data, the increases will be minimal, affecting both petrol and diesel prices.
Expected Price Changes
Petrol Price Adjustments
- Unleaded 95: Increase of 29 cents per litre
- Unleaded 93: Increase of 17 cents per litre
Diesel Price Adjustments
- 50ppm diesel: Increase of 21 cents per litre
- 500ppm diesel: Increase of 22 cents per litre
Impact on Consumers
Cost Implications
- For a typical 45-litre tank:
- Unleaded 95: Additional R13.05 per fill-up
- Unleaded 93: Additional R7.65 per fill-up
- These increases are relatively minor, equivalent to less than the cost of a can of Coca-Cola
Price Comparison Since May 2024
Current Prices vs. Previous Months
- Unleaded 95: R21.34 (November 2024)
- Unleaded 93: R20.90 (November 2024)
- 50ppm diesel: R18.78 (November 2024)
- 500ppm diesel: R18.67 (November 2024)
Five-Month Price Trend
Despite the November increase, fuel prices remain significantly lower than May 2024:
- Petrol prices: Over R4 lower
- Wholesale diesel prices: More than R3 lower
Factors Influencing Price Changes
International Oil Markets
- Recent stabilization in Brent crude oil prices
- Current price around $75 per barrel (as of October 25, 2024)
- Month-on-month increase of 5.94%
Geopolitical Factors
- Middle East tensions affecting global oil markets
- Initial surge due to Iran-Israel conflicts
- Subsequent cooling of tensions
- Potential ceasefire discussions between Israel and Hamas
Market Analysis
Recent Developments
- Reduced fears of Israeli attacks on Iranian oil infrastructure
- US diplomatic interventions
- Terminal High Altitude Area Defence missile system deployment
- Growing focus on US and Chinese oil demand
Price Stabilization Factors
- Ceasefire negotiations
- Limited likelihood of oil infrastructure attacks
- International diplomatic efforts
- Market focus shifting to demand factors
Looking Forward
Short-term Outlook
- Relatively stable prices expected
- Continued monitoring of Middle East situation
- Focus on global oil demand patterns
- Exchange rate implications
Conclusion
While November 2024 brings slight increases in fuel prices, the overall picture remains positive for South African motorists, with prices significantly lower than mid-2024 levels. The stabilization of international oil prices and cooling of geopolitical tensions suggest a period of relative price stability may be ahead.
FAQs
Q: When will the November 2024 price changes take effect? A: Fuel price changes typically take effect on the first Wednesday of the month.
Q: How much have fuel prices decreased since May 2024? A: Petrol prices are over R4 lower, while diesel prices are more than R3 lower.
Q: What is the current price of unleaded 95 petrol? A: The expected November 2024 price is R21.34 per litre.
Q: Are further price increases expected? A: Current market indicators suggest relative stability, but this depends on global factors and geopolitical developments.
